A pioneer methodology will enable the creation of a digital map to calculate the advantages, risks, and costs of investing in ecosystem restoration.
Restoring ecosystems is seen as a suitable alternative for sequestering carbon dioxide (CO2) and mitigating greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. Remember that the UN chose this subject as the central focus of its thematic decade (2021-2030). “However, there is no single prescription for restoring an ecosystem, since we still have many knowledge gaps regarding how to do this efficiently,” points out agronomist Pedro Brancalion, Coordinator of the Restoration of Native Vegetation project for CO2 sequestration (Restore C) of the Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation (RCGI). “The objective of the project is to understand how these different means of sequestering CO2 function and to identify their cost components.”
The first step of the project is to investigate this issue from the standpoint of two highly diversified Brazilian biomes: the Cerrado (Brazilian savannah) and the Atlantic Rainforest. “Carbon dioxide accumulations vary from one type of ecosystem to another. In the Atlantic Rainforest, for example, there is a large amount of CO2 on surface areas, because of the abundant wood exposure in the trees. This is different from the Cerrado, where there are fewer trees and most of the CO2 is stored underground,” explains Brancalion, who is also the Coordinator of the Tropical Forestry Laboratory in the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo (ESALQ/USP) and Vice-Coordinator of the Pact for the Restoration of the Atlantic Rainforest.
To understand which groups of species, planting, or regeneration arrangements are capable of making the CO2 sequestration process more efficient, the project will install so-called flux towers at the Itatinga Forest Science Experimental Station (EECFI), in outstate São Paulo, to check the situation within the context of the Atlantic Rainforest. In the case of the Cerrado, the place chosen is Chapada dos Veadeiros, in the State of Goiás. “We will work with the most innovative and robust methodologies,” says Brancalion. “The flux tower is an imported and extremely sophisticated piece of equipment capable of measuring what is fixed and what is released into the atmosphere. However, it had never been used in ecosystem restoration areas. Our project is a world pioneer and will likely generate unprecedented data.”
The project will take five years to complete and brings together a transdisciplinary team composed of nine scientists from research institutions located in Brazil, France, and England. “During this period of time, we will investigate other regions in the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Goiás, in order to cover such variations as soil and climate found in the biomes,” Brancalion explains. “In addition to field work, we will use remote sensing and satellite images. The project also has a strong modeling component: by comparing several surveyed areas, it is possible to create a mathematical model to estimate the CO2 sequestration potential of other areas.”
The ultimate goal of the project is to produce an open-access digital atlas that maps these CO2 restoration sites. Data will be gathered, for instance, on the potential of a given area, restoration costs, and a risk forecast of the possible loss of CO2 storage, which can be caused by nature or by human actions, such as drought and fires. “The atlas can be a great tool to support decision-making for those who want to invest in CO2 sequestration through reforestation,” Brancalion says.
According to him, one essential element in this decision-making process is being able to calculate the relationship between cost and effectiveness. “For example, this is to think, not in absolute terms, but of the amount of CO2 sequestered per unit of investment over a period of 10 years, where a company can obtain 100 tons of CO2 through a restoration project at a cost of 10,000 Reals per hectare. Another option would be to sequester 50 tons, but at a cost of 2,000 Reals per hectare. It is more advantageous to invest in areas with the profile of the second alternative and, by summing them up, manage to sequester more CO2 with the same investment required by the first option. The map will help locate the most suitable areas for a given project.”
In this calculation, we must take into account a whole series of variables, with an eye to the best investment choice. “If the investor already owns the land, the implementation cost will simply be to plant seedlings and care for the maintenance of the area. But there is also an opportunity cost for land use, which is the amount paid by third parties to be able use a certain area for restoration. For example, if a rural owner earns 400 Reals per hectare/year from his pasture, he will not likely want to rent out that area for a lesser amount. The map will help us calculate the full cost of CO2 sequestration by comparing and totaling opportunity costs with implementation costs.”
Brancalion has studied ecosystem reconstruction since graduating in 2006. He was recently ranked by the London-based Clarivate company as one of the 21 most influential researchers of the past decade, in its annual Highly Cited Researchers List. “Environmental restoration is a new area that attracts significant attention in these times of climate change. Our country is facing an extremely concerning situation. The Atlantic Rainforest is being destroyed ever since the arrival of the Portuguese in the 16th century. Its remnants are now isolated islands in the midst of agricultural areas. The Cerrado also has significant levels of deforestation and is hotter, drier, and prone to large fires,” Brancalion warns. But he adds: “The most gratifying thing about this profession is seeing a degraded area come to life; it is feeling that the work is contributing to a legacy for future generations.”