The Amazon will have a comprehensive system for analyzing greenhouse gas emissions

Coordinated by scientist Paulo Artaxo, an innovative platform is being developed within the scope of the RCGI’s research projects. It will be open-access and will help studies of the role of the Amazon within the global climate.

The Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation (RCGI), with headquarters in the University of São Paulo (USP) and funding from Shell and the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), is developing a database on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the Amazon region. The platform is being built with advanced big data techniques to generate data that can be used to monitor gas emissions, better understand its causes, and guide the creation and inspection of public policies focused on mitigating those emissions. This will make possible the monitoring Brazil’s international commitments to reduce both deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions by the Amazon ecosystem.

The platform will have the support of various Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs), such as IPAM (Amazon Research Institute), IMAZON (Amazon Institute of People and the Environment), and MapBiomas, which present different geolocated data on GHG emissions and deforestation in the Amazon, in addition to providing feedback to other databases – the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), the National Institute for Research in the Amazon (INPA), the LBA Program (Large-Scale Experiment on the Biosphere and Atmosphere of the Amazon), and the ATTO Tower (Amazon Tall Tower Observatory) – the USP Polytechnic School and Physics Institute are the project coordinators.

Comprehensive data – In this joint effort, it will be possible to analyze surface and satellite data on emissions and absorption levels, incorporating information from satellites over the last 25 years, in a solid partnership with the MapBiomas system. “We will also be able to analyze the current state of emissions practically in real time, and make projections, using artificial intelligence and advanced machine learning techniques,” emphasizes scientist Paulo Artaxo, Professor of the USP Physics Institute and one of the main researchers at the RCGI. He states that the objective is to obtain a comprehensive view of the complex and widespread aspects that impact the Amazon ecosystem and the balance of its greenhouse gas emissions.

This is the first platform to bring, in a unified manner, nearly all of the parameters that control the process of absorption and emission of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. “This initiative will be crucial for Brazil to be able to adopt public policies backed by science with comprehensive and reliable data, which make it possible to meet the targets for reducing GHG emissions. It will complement important efforts by INPE, IMAZON, IPAM, LBA, SEEG, MapBiomas, and other entities,” says Artaxo.

Brazil ranks as the sixth nation in the world, in terms of the most greenhouse gases, with deforestation in the Amazon being our main source of emissions. In the Paris Agreement of 2015 and COP-26 2021, the Brazilian government assumed specific commitments to reduce GHG emissions. By 2030, it must reduce carbon emissions by 50% and methane emissions by 30%, in addition to zeroing CO2 emissions by 2050. “The biggest efforts in this direction should be concentrated in the Amazon, from where 47% of the country’s GHG emissions originate – most of which are caused by deforestation. Hence the importance of having a platform with consolidated information on these emissions,” Artaxo stresses.

Project challenges – The database will be huge. It will contain satellite data, tower measurement data, measurements from the Lidar system (INPE), and meteorological data, covering the entire Amazon region in its nine countries, not merely Brazil. “Big data techniques, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, will be used to process and analyze this gigantic mass of data, unraveling the complex non-linear relationships between the multiple parameters,” explains the Coordinator of the computational part of the project, José Reinaldo Silva, professor at Poli-USP. “The Amazon system is so complex and widespread that, for a more complete understanding, it will be necessary to develop advanced computational tools that allow an understanding of the non-linear behavior of the interaction between the forest and the climate system,” he adds.

According to Artaxo, the first phase, which is already underway, is to collect data from remote sensing, surface, and modeling that has already been done. This stage is being carried out in partnership with MapBiomas, IPAM, INPE, LBA, IMAZON, ATTO tower, LBA, and other partners. “After that, we will begin integrating and linking different databases and developing artificial intelligence tools that allow us to extract qualified information from the system as a whole.”

One of the research challenges will be to clarify the disparity in the data currently released regarding emissions in the Amazon. This is due to the different periodicities and technological particularities of the satellites that cover the region, often generating conflicting numbers. “What we are going to do is carefully select and analyze the data from each satellite and utilize the most assertive ones to validate these data for the Amazon with surface measurements,” states Artaxo.

Several significant analyses will be possible by using these systems, such as the role of forest degradation in emissions, the impact of El Niño and La Niña on the emission of greenhouse gases, and the calculation of methane emissions in wetlands, among others. Without this broad integration of data, it is impossible for us to have a computational view of the Basin as a whole.”

Periodic reports – The researchers will also prepare and publish periodic reports on the data collected and the analyses performed. Artaxo has already put forward two aspects that will be highlighted in these analyses: the role of agricultural expansion and the impact of climate change on alterations in the photosynthetic processes of the forest. “We have observed that global warming and the change in precipitation in the Amazon are affecting the processes that regulate the absorption and emission of greenhouse gases, causing the forest to begin releasing carbon into the atmosphere. This is worrying because the forest contains about 120 billion tons of carbon in the ecosystem, which corresponds to 10 years of burning all the fossil fuels in the world,” he declares.

The platform is being developed at USP, in São Paulo, within the scope of the project “Greenhouse gas emissions in the Amazon and data analysis and service systems” by the RCGI, which already has a team of nine post-doctoral fellows and many Master’s and Doctoral students. The researchers will use USP’s computers and the Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Earth Engine (GEE) systems. The project is part of the GHG program, which is one of the five RCGI areas focusing their research on generating knowledge and innovation that help Brazil meet its GHG mitigation goals.