Proposals presented by researchers during the USP Pre-COP event reveal the country’s dilemma between exploiting resources that still sustain its economy and accelerating the leap into the post-carbon era.
Responsible for most of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, fossil fuel combustion places the oil and gas industry at the center of the climate crisis. Holding it accountable seems obvious — turning it into part of the solution, not so much. Yet this was precisely the focus of a discussion among researchers from the University of São Paulo (USP) during the panel “Research Centers’ Expectations for COP30”, held on Wednesday (Nov 6) at the USP Pre-COP.
The activity was part of the 8th Energy Transition Research & Innovation Conference (ETRI), organized by the Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation (RCGI-USP). The panel brought together leaders from various USP research centers engaged in projects related to climate challenges, offering complementary perspectives on the role of science in this process.
The possible trillion: turning wealth into transition
Julio Romano Meneghini, from RCGI, presented a proposal aimed at reconciling economic realism with decarbonization targets regarding oil exploration in Brazil’s Equatorial Margin.
“We are talking about roughly one trillion dollars. If 2% or 3% of this amount were mandatorily allocated to forest restoration and emission compensation, it would already be a step toward not worsening the climate scenario,” he said.
Meneghini emphasized that energy transition will only occur with stable funding for research and innovation — and Brazil can find part of these resources in the very wealth that currently threatens the climate. RCGI leads hydrogen-from-ethanol projects and is preparing a green methanol plant expected to start operating in 2025. “Green hydrogen still costs nearly five dollars per kilo; we need to reach one. That will only come with technology and investment.”
Limits for new oil frontiers
Paulo Artaxo, from CEAS, expressed concerns about opening new exploration frontiers, citing IPCC findings.
“The IPCC has been clear: the space for new projects is increasingly limited if we want to keep global warming within the 1.5°C target,” he said.
He argued that COP30 — to be held in the heart of the Amazon — must signal the beginning of a new development model based on renewable energy and ecosystem protection, supported by permanent international financial mechanisms.
Reinventing the industry: from offshore to post-carbon
Gustavo Assi, from OTIC, offered a bridge:
“The offshore industry does not have to be synonymous with oil and gas. It can be the space of the transition — from which new molecules like hydrogen and ammonia will emerge, along with offshore carbon capture and storage technologies.”
He stressed that Brazil has unique infrastructure and human capital to accelerate this reinvention — but only with firm public policies and regulation.
Science and climate justice
Patrícia Iglecias, from USPproClima, highlighted that the transition will only be just if guided by science and equity.
“COP30 decisions must be based on evidence — emission inventories, vulnerability metrics — and consider those who suffer the most from climate impacts.”
The health warning
Paulo Lotufo, from CPCE, reminded the audience that the climate crisis is also a health crisis, with rising respiratory and cardiovascular diseases in areas affected by fires and deforestation.
The strength of USP’s scientific diversity
USP’s rector, Carlos Gilberto Carlotti Jr., emphasized that the plurality of perspectives across USP’s research centers enables the university to contribute effectively to climate challenges.
“USP fulfills its mission when it turns science into development and research into solutions for the future.”