With regulation and incentives already approved, Brazil is advancing in the creation of a competitive market for green hydrogen and its derivatives. Experts gathered at ETRI 2025 emphasized that the fuel is part of a broader portfolio of technologies for the energy transition.
Brazil’s green hydrogen and derivatives sector — including methanol, ammonia, and fertilizers — is entering a new phase of expansion. According to Fernanda Delgado, Executive Director of the Brazilian Association of the Green Hydrogen Industry (ABIHV), companies are ready to begin production in 2029 and exports in 2030, driven by legal subsidies of €3 billion planned between 2030 and 2034. The statement was made during the panel Decarbonization and the Fuel of the Future, held on November 5 at the 8th Energy Transition Research & Innovation Conference (ETRI), an event organized by the Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Innovation at the University of São Paulo (RCGI-USP).
Delgado explained that Brazil already has a solid regulatory framework and incentive policies that encourage private sector engagement. The next step, she said, is to connect international buyers in Europe and Asia with the Brazilian market. “Our history shows that it’s possible to combine industrial and environmental policy — as we did with ethanol, biodiesel, wind energy, and liquefied natural gas. At first, everything seemed expensive or unfeasible, but time and scale changed that. Now it’s time to turn promises into concrete business,” she said.
According to Ricardo Martins, from Hyundai Motor Central & South America, hydrogen is a key element in the mobility of the future. He highlighted Brazil’s role as a technological reference, supported by public policies and research centers, but noted that decarbonization also depends on economic feasibility. “It’s essential to invest in production and distribution infrastructure and in reliable metrics to calculate the actual reduction in emissions — something crucial to attract investment,” he said.
He added that more than US$1 trillion is available globally for decarbonization projects, and by 2025, half of the world’s mobility is expected to be hydrogen-powered. “It’s an economic opportunity and, above all, a matter of society’s survival,” he concluded.
André Faaij, Chief Scientist at TNO Energy & Materials Transition, stated that the energy transition will require a profound industrial reconfiguration, especially in the fuels and chemical sectors. According to him, economically viable technologies and systems already exist to enable this transformation within the next 25 years, but multiple solutions will need to be combined — including ammonia, hydrogen, biofuels, and synthetic fuels.
Faaij noted that the new global fuel portfolio will be hybrid and advocated for the development of “refineries of the future” — flexible industrial plants capable of operating with different carbon sources and energy vectors, producing low-carbon fuels and chemical inputs. “A 25-year horizon is short, and the key element is continuous innovation,” he emphasized. “Failing to meet the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C could cost 20% to 25% of the world’s GDP; in a 3°C scenario, the impact could reach two-thirds of the global economy,” he cited, referencing a recent Nature study.
For Plinio Nastari, President of Datagro, ethanol is the best vector for hydrogen, as it allows fuel generation at the point of use from an abundant renewable source — an approach currently being researched by RCGI-USP. He recalled that Brazil has replaced over 4 billion barrels of gasoline and avoided 1 billion tons of CO₂ since the launch of the Proálcool program 50 years ago. Today, half of the country’s energy matrix is renewable. Nastari also highlighted Brazil’s advanced regulatory system and biofuel certifications that measure carbon intensity, as well as the impact of biofuels on the development of Brazilian automotive engineering, which has made the country one of the world’s six main industry hubs.
Even in a traditional sector like shipping, the energy transition is advancing. Flávio Haruo Mathuiy, from the Brazilian Navy, noted that the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has established decarbonization targets through 2050 and that the naval industry is already investing in lower-carbon fuels such as ammonia and methanol. He mentioned that pressures from oil-producing countries delayed some decisions, but the movement continues autonomously, driven by competitiveness and market survival. The Navy, he added, participates in international forums and partnerships focused on energy efficiency and the development of new marine fuels.